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Global Warming

What it Means for Maine

Present temperature and precipitation trends in Maine: The average temperature in Lewiston, Maine has increased by 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit.  Newspapers report that Maine temperatures in 1998 were slightly above the average. Portland’s average temperature for the year was 9/10^th of a degree above normal. Gray’s temperatures were one degree above the mean and Caribou’s were 8/10 of a degree above normal. Precipitation has decreased by up to 20% in many parts of the state

Predictions for Maine: The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change and Maine Report outlines the range of impacts that global warming will have on the state. It is not clear if these past trends will continue into the future. However, projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and results from the United Kingdom Hadley Centre Climate Model, indicate that by 2100 temperatures in Maine could increase by 4 degrees Fahrenheit. The impacts of this warming are outlined in the following sections.

Human Health: The majority of human health consequences due to increased temperatures will be associated with the spread of infectious diseases. Tick borne afflictions such as Lyme disease would increase. Algal blooms such as red tides would also increase and last longer, damaging habitat and shellfish nurseries and posing increased toxicity problems to humans. Outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis and giardia could worsen with water quality problems as well.

Global warming could mean an increase in heat related deaths and heat related illnesses in New England. A warming of 3 degrees Fahrenheit could mean an increase in heat related deaths during a typical summer of 50-100%. Global warming would also spell an increase in ground level ozone levels, which are associated with respiratory illnesses. Ground level ozone concentrations already exceed the national ozone health standard to a moderate extent in Portland and in southern counties along the coast.

The Coast: The town of Rockland has seen a sea level rise of 4 inches in this century. With global warming, sea level is likely to increase by another 14 inches by the year 2100. This would lead to an increase in the oceans tidal range with a consequent increase in the severity of coastal storms and flooding. In Portland the tidal range has jumped 9 inches since 1913.

Due to global warming, the present instability in the west Antarctic ice sheet poses increased threats. The collapse of the ice sheet could raise sea level by 30 – 40 feet in a matter of centuries. The EPA projects that to protect the coast from just a 20 inch rise in sea level could cost as much as $900 million

Forests and Agriculture: Maine forests represent a fragile ecosystem that is vulnerable to change. Spruce and fir are already at their southern limit in Maine. An increase in temperature could cut their extent by 40% in some areas. Studies indicate that with global warming, some trees might grow faster but be more susceptable to disease. Maine might produce more timber but it would be of poorer quality. Maine paper companies that use fir and spruce could be in serious trouble since a warmer a climate would push Maine fir and spruce northward. Mixed hardwood softwood forests would advance and the maple dominated hardwood forest in the south- would give way to oaks and pines and even savanna in some areas.

Agriculture could see a northward shift in production patterns as well. It is difficult to predict how changes in water availability, crop pests, and air pollution will affect various types of crops. The severity of the impacts are dependent on how easily farmers are able or capable of adapting. Global warming could reduce potato yields by 2-23% and hay and pasture yields by 39%. It is possible that Maine farmers could alter their cropping practices to take advantage of longer growing season and thus limit income losses due to reductions in hay and potato yields.

Fish and Wildlife: Global warming in Maine could translate into a reduction of cold water fish species.

Local experts explain that mankind has already had a major impact on the state’s fish by introducing new species and contributing to water pollution. China Lake and Cobbossee Lake once harbored a sizable population of cold loving lake trout. Native brook trout would be affected the most by future warming.

Changes in forest composition due to the effects of global warming could limit the present range of other animals as well. Spruce grouse, gray jays, boreal chickadees, snowshoe hares, marten, moose are among the species that could be affected due to changes in forest composition.

Loss of coastal estuaries due to rising sea levels would threaten the bald eagle, peregrine flacon, piping plover, and roeate tern. Further, flooding of tidal rivers would destroy the habitat for more than 30 species of rare plants.

Water Resources: A warmer climate has many possible implications for the State’s water resources. Global warming could mean earlier spring snowmelt, higher stream flows in winter and spring, lower stream flows in summer and fall, changes in lake stratification patterns, etc.

More intense rainfall during some seasons could increase the frequency of floods in steep headwater areas and in well developed flood plains. This would also mean an increase in erosion in agricultural and timber harvesting areas. Meanwhile, less rainfall during the summer would lead to decreased groundwater levels and create water supply problems in southwestern coastal Maine. This area already has a growing water demand due to growth and increased tourism.

State of Maine Climate Change Action Plan

The Maine State Planning Office and the University of Maine are co-directors of the Maine Climate Change Task Force. Members of the Climate Change Task Force have produced a document entitled State of Maine Climate Change Action Plan. The report, which has not yet been finalized, "addresses the issue of climate change and examines policy options that Maine and other states will have to consider as the United States forges a strategy for reducing and stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions."

The report examines the impacts that global warming will have on Maine if emissions are not curbed, identifies the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the state, and outlines strategies for reducing emissions to ensure the continued health of our environment and natural resources.

The report outlines both the regional and local risks of global warming to Maine.

It discusses the impacts that global warming will have on natural systems, economic sectors and human health. The potential impacts are far reaching. Forest ecosystems may change as the range of fir and spruce trees shifts farther northward. Water resources could be affected by an increase in the length of the ice free season, decreased habitat for cool water fish species, changes in runoff patterns in streams, and changes in lake stratification and runoff patterns. Agriculture could be affected by an increased incidence of pests and disease, changes in the timing of frosts, increased heat stress, and changes in wind patterns. Tourism and recreation could suffer as well. Cold wet summer or winters without out much snow could have a significant impact on the economy.

The report says that the per capita emission of greenhouse gases from Maine is larger than every other state in New England and that CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas originating from Maine. Therefore the task force report focuses primarily on the identification and control of CO2 sources. Figures from 1990 indicate that transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Maine, accounting for 47% of total emissions. Industrial activities account for 20%, residential for 15%, electric utilities for10%, and commercial activities for 8%.

The Report asserts that states have the incentive and ability to provide leadership in identifying policy solutions. The self-defined goal of the Maine State Action Plan is to decrease net carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by early in the next century. The action plan outlines numerous strategies for the transportation, utility/power, industrial, commercial and residential sector in order to accomplish this goal. The strategies aim at increasing efficiency, promoting conservation, examining fuel substitutions, increasing carbon sequestration, and employing technological innovations that minimize economic burdens. The task force report asserts that, "Despite the scientific uncertainty surrounding the phenomenon of climate change the magnitude of the potential negative impacts behooves state governments to examine a range of mitigation and adaptive responses."

A draft of this report is available to the public. To request a copy, call Jim Connors of the State Planning Office at 207-287-8938.

Sierra Club Global Warming and Energy Campaign: CAFE Campaign

Increasing the fuel efficiency of automobiles is the biggest single step the United States can take to reduce consumption of fossil fuels and the threat of global warming. We have a tool to achieve this goal in the form of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Raising CAFE standards to 45 miles per gallon (mpg) for cars and 34 mpg for light trucks (trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles) is the biggest single step we can take to curb global warming. Raising the CAFE standards would reduce Maine’s CO2 emissions by 4 million tons per year.

CAFE is a fleet-wide average standard. It is currently set at 27.5 mpg for cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks (the standards have been stagnant for almost a decade.) In any given model year it requires that the average for an automakers entire fleet meet it's goals. Manufacturers can still make vehicles that get less than the standards, as long as they balance them with more efficient vehicles.

In 1997 all three US automakers violated CAFE standards for light trucks. Rather than improve their products, the Big 3 have waged a lobbying offensive in Washington DC, and have successfully influenced members of Congress to pass one year freezes on the law. 1997 was the third year that such a freeze was passed.

Clean Cars on Maine lots

The Portland Press Herald reported on Nov 12, 1998 that Clean Cars are showing up on Maine dealer lots. Clean cars that meet the California tough emissions standards are turning up on Maine car lots two years before the deadline set by state law. Ultra low emission vehicles produce 85% fewer emissions than cars that meet he basic federal emission standard. Californians have been driving these cars since 1994.

Unfortunately, these cars can be hard to identify on the lot. They are presently marked with only a small sticker under the hood. Environmentalists and public health advocates are working with dealers on a special window sticker program. This would make the cars easier to identify and would help buyers to chose the "greenest’ car possible. The Californian cars sold in Maine come in four varieties. There is the basic emission vehicle, the transitional low emission vehicle, the low emission vehicle, and the ultra low emission vehicle.